December 27, 2011

Dealing with North Korea’s New Leader: Getting it Right

by Evans J.R. Revere

    The sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has introduced an element of uncertainty into a diplomatic process that appeared to be close to bringing about the resumption of six-party denuclearization talks. While Kim’s demise creates a new dynamic and the leadership transition in Pyongyang raises important questions, it hardly warrants the dire warnings of North Korean adventurism, implosion, or near-term collapse that have been issued by some analysts and commentators. Fortunately, the Obama administration is playing its cards carefully and well, and is disregarding the bad advice it is getting from some quarters.
    By all accounts, meetings between US and North Korean diplomats, the latest between US envoy Ambassador Robert King and DPRK Ambassador Ri Gun in Beijing earlier this month, produced an agreement in principle to resume US food aid. Importantly, this would be in exchange for Pyongyang’s acceptance of key US preconditions for resuming the Six-Party Talks, including the freezing of the DPRK’s uranium enrichment activities. When news broke of Kim’s death, the United States and North Korea were on the verge of holding a meeting to confirm these understandings and chart a course back to multilateral denuclearization talks, where shutting down and dismantling North Korea’s entire range of nuclear weapons activities would be the goal.